I am reading another fantastic book..........and because I LOVE to read books, this will not be the last. Lately I have been interested in economics. I do not know why other than the fact that I just enjoy studying and learning new things and reading books gives you a wonderful opportunity to do so. I have been reading the newspaper for years and have found that to be quite an enjoyable activity, not to mention the spark of molecular currency in my brain that reading has generated. And because I am creative, it's the perfect hobby for my spare time.
Since reading is considered a hobby to me, I in no way want to extenuate the topic of this current book.
This book is about oil. And oil is becoming such a problem that I believe people are just now starting to realize how large a problem it is. Oil is the lifeline to our economy as it is to China and Indonesia. Just as blood is essential for our bodies to live, so is oil to our economy. In fact both the leaders of the US and China have openly declared and deemed OIL essential to their economic survival and energy security. This poses a real threat when measured in terms of SUPPLY and DEMAND, an issue that so many leaders and elected officials are denying. But as gas prices soar above $5 a gallon, we may just very well hear more about supply and demand from not only the media but from our leaders as well. Unfortunately, our current "leaders" have not demonstrated any real leadership on this issue because everyone just assumes that oil will always be there. But what about cheap oil to support our economy that cannot exist without inexpensive oil? And what about an infrastructure that does not work without cheap oil? When you think about all the things we use petro chemicals for; from makeup and health and beauty products, to polyester, to all things plastic, and so much more, we simply cannot exist in our current society without cheap oil. In a word, our civilization is built on cheap oil. Even most of the airlines now have merged or are discussing a merger due to the exorbitant fuel costs.
Think about this for a moment........."the suburban lifestyle will be impossible to sustain in a world of increasingly expensive oil. As energy becomes more expensive and costly, few people will be able to afford to heat a 5,000 square foot home, or to own a car-let alone drive 10 miles to and from work each day. It will be cost prohibitive to ship goods from China, or even food from out of state, to supply suburban neighborhoods, so the malls and box stores will be empty"............excerpted from the book "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler
The people who think oil will never run out are those who think money and technology can buy anything. They imagine that the ultimate amount of energy available to us is determined both by economics and technology and if you pay smart people enough money they will figure out anyway to get the oil we need. It's like you give me a couple tooth picks and I will build you a shopping mall. Or they imagine it's just a political crisis like that in the 1970's oil embargo when oil exports from Saudi Arabia were denied the US because of our allegiance to Israel. However, things have changed. We are no longer dealing with a political crisis, but rather an energy crisis. Global oil production is on the decline because the earth's crust contains only so much oil that can be extracted for a reasonable cost, and no amount of money or brain can change that fact. Some people believe the United States has plenty oil here because we are the richest nation in the world, but don't be deceived because US oil production actually started to decline in the 70's. When we first started producing oil from a well in Titusville PA, we should of kept all our oil production but because we were not consuming near as much oil as we do today, we exporting much of our oil and I believe to our peril as we will see. I find it interesting that as soon as we started talking about drilling in Anwar, the environmentalists started besieging the TV with ads on the so-called endangered polar bear.
If anyone wants to understand anything about crude oil, they should first seek to understand what crude oil is, where it comes from, how it is formed and how it is refined. It's actually quite interesting and a fascinating study, and this is why we have geologists who love rocks and sediment, the material that settles to the bottom of a liquid. Where the issue of supply and demand comes in to play is when we factor in the barrel per day and so estimate that global demand will soon reach 200 million barrels per day or 200 million bpd. When you factor in the rate at which the population is growing and the rising global economies such as China and Indonesia, it is mathematical impossible to meet the demand. The demand for oil is not just growing slowing, it is growing exponentially meaning it is doubling in growth from 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 to 32 to 64 and on and on. And since there is only a finite number of economic oil patches in the world, global oil production must eventually decline. Even if production simply flattens, that will be enough to prevent future economic growth. This is a serious issue that is not going away and the demand for oil will not relent. And everyone at least has enough sense ( I would hope) that when people get desperate enough, they will go to war, up to and including nuclear war.
"Energy is essential to wealth. Just as the United States will feel compelled to defend its access to oil, other nations, who feel they have an equal right to enjoy a share of the world's wealth, may fight to secure some of the remaining oil deposits. With nuclear weapons becoming more widespread, the possibility of nuclear war grows greater, and with it the most dramatic, large-scale collapse of civilization the world has ever witnessed. As Albert Einstein observed, "I don't know what kind of weapons will be used in the third world war, assuming there will be a third world war. But I can tell you what the fourth world war will be fought with........stone clubs."..........excerpted from the current book I am reading, "The Coming Economic Collapse....How you can thrive when oil costs $200 a barrel" by Stephen Leeb, PhD.
There is so much to be said on this subject so for now I will blog on this in increments. But no doubt given our current world situation, it is enough to seriously ponder. But as a Christian, it just reminds me of one more day closer I am of seeing my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ fulfilling His promises.
To be continued.......